How prices work
Every market has at least two sides — YES (the event will happen) and NO (it won’t). The prices of all outcomes always add up to $1. If a YES share is trading at **0.35. Here’s a concrete example:A market asks: “Will BTC close above 0.72.If you think the crowd is underestimating the odds — say you believe it’s closer to 85% — you buy YES shares at 100k, each share pays 72 becomes 72. If you think the crowd is overestimating — you believe it’s really only 50% — you buy NO shares at 100k, your 100. Prices move continuously as new information arrives. As more people trade, the price converges toward the best collective estimate of the probability.
The crowd thinks there’s a 72% probability of that happening.
Why prediction markets exist
Information aggregation
Information aggregation
Prediction markets pull together information from every participant: analysts, insiders, obsessives, people with specialized knowledge. The aggregate price is often more accurate than polls, pundit forecasts, or expert panels — because people reveal their true beliefs when money is at stake. This “wisdom of the crowd” effect is the core intellectual argument for prediction markets.
Trading edge
Trading edge
If you have superior knowledge or analysis in a domain — you follow a sports team obsessively, you work in the relevant industry, you’re a skilled forecaster — you can profit by trading where the market price is wrong. The market rewards accurate prediction.
Hedging
Hedging
Some participants use prediction markets to hedge real-world exposure. A business owner whose revenue depends on an election outcome, or a content creator with merchandise tied to a sports result, can hedge against an adverse outcome by buying shares on the other side.
How resolution works
When a market’s resolution criteria are met — the event happens or the deadline passes — the market settles and winners are paid. Different platforms handle resolution differently:| Platform | Resolution mechanism |
|---|---|
| Polymarket | UMA optimistic oracle — humans propose an outcome, anyone can dispute within a window, consensus settles |
| Kalshi | Internal team reads sources and settles, audited under CFTC oversight |
| BlockForecast | Multi-agent AI consensus — independent AI agents read authoritative sources, vote with confidence scores, and settle automatically |
Prediction markets vs. sports betting
Prediction markets and sportsbooks look similar on the surface — both let you put money on an outcome. But the mechanics are meaningfully different.- How odds are set
- Purpose
- Settlement
- Regulation
A sportsbook employs a team of oddsmakers who set the lines. They build in a margin (the “vig”) designed to ensure the house profits over time regardless of the outcome. The odds are set against you.A prediction market has no in-house oddsmaker. Prices are set entirely through trading between participants. The platform charges a small fee, but it isn’t your direct counterparty in the same way a sportsbook is.
What you can trade on BlockForecast
BlockForecast supports markets across any topic with a clear, public, time-bounded answer:Crypto
Price levels, ETF approvals, protocol events, on-chain milestones — including real-time 5-minute BTC, ETH, and SOL up-or-down markets.
Sports
Match results, season outcomes, tournament winners across major leagues and competitions worldwide.
Politics
Elections, appointments, policy decisions, geopolitical events.
Tech & culture
Product launches, earnings reports, IPOs, awards, charts — anything with a verifiable outcome.
How BlockForecast is different
Most prediction market platforms — Polymarket and Kalshi included — only allow their internal teams to list markets. BlockForecast has an open creator program: any approved user can create a market and earn 0.5% of every trade that market generates, paid out in real time. To create a market, you apply for creator access (reviewed within 24 hours), then use the market creation interface to define the question, resolution criteria, and settlement date. See the Creator Program for details.Placing your first trade
Fund your account
You need USDC on Base to trade. Use the in-app bridge to convert any crypto, or withdraw USDC from a CEX that supports Base. See How to Deposit.
Browse markets
Go to Markets and find a market you have an opinion on.
Choose YES or NO
Review the current price (= the market’s probability estimate). If you think the true probability is higher than the YES price, buy YES. If you think it’s lower, buy NO.
Enter your trade size
The minimum trade is $1 USDC. The LMSR market maker provides instant liquidity at any size — no need to wait for a counterparty.
Most casual traders lose net over time on prediction markets, the same as any financial market. Skilled forecasters with domain expertise and disciplined probability estimates do well. Start with small amounts while you learn how prices move.